Elon Musk had an eventful 2024, what together with his exhausting push into right-wing politics and leveraging his X social media platform and appreciable affect to assist Donald Trump win the presidential election.
Placing politics apart for a second, it’s value specializing in one other Musk pastime: making guarantees for Tesla.
The Tesla CEO’s guarantees — and repeated missed deadlines — have turn out to be a major thread within the Tesla storyline. And so they’ve at all times had an eye-popping high quality that captured the creativeness of buyers and helped drive up the worth of Tesla inventory, giving the corporate a valuation of $1.3 trillion. There was his declare in 2015 that Tesla automobiles can be self-driving in two years, that cross-country driverless road-trips can be enabled by the top of 2017, and that Tesla house owners would be capable of earn cash by way of an enormous driverless ride-hailing community in 2020.
And whereas Tesla has cemented its place in historical past books due to constructing and promoting hundreds of thousands of electrical automobiles, not one of the above guarantees (nor many others) have come to go.
However that hasn’t stopped Musk from making extra guarantees in 2024. Right here’s an accounting of these guarantees and when he expects them to turn out to be actuality.
The $25,000 EV
In 2024 alone, Musk pledged to unveil a $25,000 EV, then scrapped it in April to prioritize a robotaxi prototype — a call that led to mass layoffs as Tesla pursued its “subsequent section of development.”
Musk has flip-flopped on whether or not the inexpensive EV would ever come to market. However throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned the thought of constructing a $25,000 automotive with a steering wheel and pedals is “pointless” and “foolish.” He mentioned the one automotive he’d promote at that worth level can be the Cybercab.
Through the name, an analyst requested if Tesla would make a lower-cost EV that’s not the Cybercab, and Musk replied that the entire firm’s vehicles transferring ahead can be autonomous. He additionally mentioned that of the 7 million automobiles Tesla has constructed up to now, the “overwhelming majority” are “able to autonomy,” and that Tesla is “at present making on the order of 35,000 autonomous automobiles per week.” Musk is clearly utilizing a free definition of autonomy right here, as a result of Tesla nonetheless doesn’t produce automobiles which are secure to make use of and not using a human behind the wheel.
(Flashback: Musk initially promised in 2016, in a since-deleted publish on Tesla’s web site, that “All Tesla Vehicles Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving {Hardware},” and that solely a software program replace can be wanted to show common outdated Teslas into self-driving vehicles. That didn’t occur, and Tesla has needed to improve vehicles with older {hardware}.)
It’s additionally value noting that in that earnings name, Musk mentioned that he expects automobile development to achieve 20% to 30% in 2025 resulting from “decrease price automobiles” and the “creation of autonomy.”
Begin manufacturing on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026
Tesla unveiled 20 Cybercab prototypes at a flashy Hollywood occasion in October, and Musk took the chance to share some plans for the automobiles, in addition to Tesla’s so-called Full Self-Driving (FSD) software program. FSD is Tesla’s superior driver help system that may carry out many automated driving duties, however nonetheless requires a human to stay attentive behind the wheel and take over if wanted.
Musk instructed prospects they might be capable of sooner or later purchase a robotaxi — a two-door, two-seat automobile with no steering wheel or pedals — for lower than $30,000. He additionally mentioned that the typical working price of the Cybercab will cut back over time to solely $0.20 per mile. And he mentioned Tesla would begin manufacturing on the purpose-built AVs in 2025 or 2026.
(Flashback: Musk mentioned in 2022 that Tesla would mass-produce robotaxis by 2024. Earlier than that, in 2019, he mentioned that Tesla would have one million robotaxis on roads by 2020. Musk has promised that Tesla would clear up full self-driving “subsequent yr” since at the very least 2016.)
A couple of weeks later, throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned Tesla would attain “quantity manufacturing in ’26,” and that the corporate was ultimately “aiming for at the very least 2 million items a yr of Cybercab.”
Present federal rules that require automobiles to be constructed with sure security requirements, like guide human controls, may very well be roadblocks for Tesla to mass produce its Cybercabs. The Nationwide Freeway Visitors Security Administration not too long ago proposed new guidelines that might fast-track exemptions for such automobiles, however they might require firms to share extra information with the company, like crash reporting. Right this moment, automakers are required to report crashes when ADAS or autonomous driving tech is engaged.
Musk has railed towards the rule earlier than, and President-elect Donald Trump’s transition crew is reportedly exploring scrapping it.
Robovan in improvement
Throughout Tesla’s robotaxi reveal, the corporate additionally confirmed buyers a Robovan prototype. On the time Musk didn’t share any concrete plans for the automobile, however in November he posted on X that the Robovan is in improvement, together with “another issues.”
(Flashback: In 2016, Musk mentioned Tesla would begin constructing a minibus utilizing the Mannequin X chassis in two to a few years.)
“Unsupervised FSD” and autonomous ride-hail in 2025
On the occasion, Musk additionally promised that Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y house owners would be capable of use an “unsupervised” model of FSD in California and Texas in 2025.
It wasn’t, and nonetheless isn’t, clear what Musk meant by “unsupervised” FSD. Right this moment, Tesla’s FSD continues to be not totally autonomous, and to dispel any confusion, Tesla this yr started referring to the software program as “supervised FSD.” Eradicating the supervision might imply that Tesla plans to take away the driving force, or it might imply that Tesla plans to supply a Degree 3 autonomous system that permits drivers to go hands-off, eyes-off for a portion of their journey.
Throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk took the promise of unsupervised FSD a step additional. He mentioned he hopes to launch a service that can let folks hail self-driving Teslas in California and Texas in 2025. He additionally claimed Tesla had begun testing the service within the Bay Space with staff.
(Context: There are a number of tiers of permits required to check and deploy autonomous automobiles in California. Tesla has held a allow to check AVs with a security driver within the entrance seat since 2015, however the Division of Motor Automobiles instructed TechCrunch in October that Tesla final reported utilizing that allow in 2019.)
It’s not clear if Tesla plans to launch this ride-hail service with its robotaxis or with present Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y house owners. Tesla’s first-quarter earnings presentation included a mock-up of a future Tesla ride-hail app, and the corporate has for years teased the thought of a ride-hailing community utilizing Teslas that had been up to date to drive totally autonomously. The concept is much like Uber, solely Tesla house owners would add their correctly geared up self-driving automobiles to the automaker’s ride-hailing app to make additional money when the vehicles aren’t in use. Tesla would take 25% to 30% of the income.
Lastly, throughout Tesla’s first-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned Tesla was in talks with a “main automaker” to license FSD, however to date has not introduced any such offers.
“Over a thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025
Musk has made some out-there guarantees about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robotic. Throughout Tesla’s annual shareholder assembly, Musk promised that Tesla would transfer into “restricted manufacturing” of the Optimus subsequent yr, with “over 1,000, or a couple of thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025. He additionally mentioned he expects Optimus to be on sale by 2026. In a publish on X, the billionaire govt added that he expects to have extra Optimus bots accessible to be used by different firms in 2026.
He didn’t specify if the bots can be working totally autonomously, or if they might be remotely managed by people, as they have been throughout Tesla’s robotaxi reveal occasion in October.
(Context: Whereas humanoid robots are bettering to the purpose of having the ability to autonomously full particular duties, many consultants say generalized robotics continues to be years away resulting from an absence of coaching information.)
Other than manufacturing guarantees, Musk additionally predicted that Optimus might sooner or later carry Tesla’s market cap to $25 trillion. That’s roughly seven instances the present market caps of Apple and Nvidia. On the finish of December, Tesla’s market cap was round $1.42 trillion, which is nearly a 160% enhance from the $550 billion market cap earlier than Trump received the presidential election.
Have we missed something? Be happy to achieve out to rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com.
