Republicans have gained a majority within the Senate, flipping the physique after 4 years of Democratic management.
This was the predicted consequence given how susceptible Democrats had been this cycle: Whereas they had been defending 9 battleground seats, Republicans had been solely defending three. The GOP efficiently flipped key states together with West Virginia and Ohio, whereas holding off unexpectedly aggressive challenges in locations like Nebraska and Texas.
Republicans’ victories come as former President Donald Trump leads in electoral votes, with a number of swing states nonetheless excellent. As of two am ET, the presidential race has not been referred to as for both candidate, although early outcomes appear to recommend a bonus for Trump, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s believable paths to victory narrowing.
Of their campaigns, Republican Senate candidates leaned closely on critiques of Democrats’ financial insurance policies as many citizens continued to grapple with inflation and excessive prices of residing. Additionally they stored up fear-mongering on immigration as nicely, arguing that solely they might supply options to border crossing surges, just like the one in 2023. Total, as a result of they weren’t in management within the Senate, Republican candidates had been in a position to capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment — and present discontent — as they campaigned to take again sure seats.
Republicans’ good points might have main implications for a possible Trump or Harris administration. If Trump wins, the Republican Senate would successfully supply him a clean test on appointments, and permit him to renew stacking the courts along with his judges. Relying on the end result of Home races, a GOP Senate might additionally allow a potential Trump administration to pursue coverage priorities like rolling again the Reasonably priced Care Act (ACA) and renewing company tax cuts. If Harris wins, the Senate might nicely stymie key judicial appointees, and block her legislative objectives.
What Republican Senate management might imply
The function the Senate will play within the subsequent few years will rely closely on who wins the presidential race.
The final Trump presidency was finally illustrative of what occurs when each the White Home and Senate are held by Republicans.
In that state of affairs, Trump was in a position to advance his judges at a fast tempo, reshaping the Circuit Court docket and Supreme Court docket with conservative picks. In whole, Trump was in a position to get 234 judges confirmed, together with the three who now sit on the Supreme Court docket who proved integral to overturning Roe v. Wade.
Equally, Trump confronted little backlash or accountability for his rhetoric or coverage choices all through his time period, together with makes an attempt to implement a Muslim journey ban or to close down the federal government as leverage for funding for a wall alongside the US-Mexico border. Though some Republican senators spoke out, few really vocalized their opposition to Trump or scrutinized his actions. When Trump was impeached for his function in fomenting the January 6 revolt, for instance, solely seven Republicans voted to convict him — the remainder voted to acquit him.
If Republicans preserve management of the Home, a GOP Congress might additionally assist Trump advance his legislative agenda.
Trump has targeted extra on govt actions he’d prefer to take (corresponding to on tariffs, immigration, and worldwide relations) than on a congressional agenda. Nonetheless, Republicans have lengthy expressed an curiosity in curbing entry to the ACA. One concern lawmakers will weigh within the subsequent yr is the expiration of ACA premium subsidies, Stat reviews. Home Speaker Mike Johnson has emphasised already that he’s occupied with main “reform” to the well being care invoice as nicely.
The tax cuts that Republicans handed in 2017 are additionally up for renewal, and will probably be one other concern that lawmakers within the subsequent Congress might want to deal with. Trump has prompt chopping the company tax price and has floated some revenue tax cuts too. No matter whether or not they take the Home, Senate Republicans will doubtless advocate for these cuts. And Republicans might push, too, for expanded oil and gasoline drilling leases that Democrats had beforehand curbed.
Senate Republicans have already signaled that they plan to be as obstructionist as potential in the event that they’re coping with a Harris administration.
Notably, each Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX), two doubtless successors to Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, have informed CNN that they aren’t positive if they might maintain a vote for any potential Harris Supreme Court docket nominees. With the bulk, the GOP can attempt to block any Harris judicial appointment from advancing, very similar to they as soon as did with former President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court docket nominee Merrick Garland and a few of his decrease court docket picks. Within the case of Garland, the GOP efficiently refused to ever maintain a affirmation listening to or vote for him — and had been in a position to forestall him from getting seated on the bench.
They might do the identical for different Cupboard roles as nicely, and so they might additionally block laws from advancing. Harris campaigned closely on working to enact insurance policies that require congressional approval, together with sweeping immigration and abortion reform. These coverage objectives are unlikely to change into a actuality in a GOP-controlled Senate.
No matter whether or not Trump or Harris is within the White Home, count on the higher chamber to play a big function in advancing or hampering their efforts.
